Mr Bootle is also at odds with a growing majority of the population who do think Brexit has been a mistake, indeed many think it’s been an utter disaster. Of course, it isn't that surprising that those who supported it and led the cheering from the sidelines are the last to accept the truth about Brexit.
The mistake is now so huge and far-reaching that to admit you voted for it is bad enough, but admitting you supported it from the outset and that leaving the EU has been your life's ambition isn't going to do a lot for your self-esteem or your career as an economist and newspaper columnist.
Bootle's arguments are a bit muddled. He begins by setting out the four main ‘benefits’ of Brexit as he saw them back in the day. These, according to him, were/are:
“First, the UK would be able to strike free trade agreements (FTAs) with other countries. Second, it would be able to diverge from European regulations. Third, it would save its annual contributions to the EU budget. Fourth, it could operate a completely new migration policy.”
On the question of trade deals, he acknowledges the big one with the USA isn’t going to happen anytime soon and if the recent impasse with our former colony Canada is anything to go by, it isn’t going to happen at all. The rolled-over EU deal with Canada is about to get significantly worse with tariffs soon to be charged on cars and cheese.
He has a trade graph that shows exports flatlining and the trade gap widening.
On regulatory divergence or rather the lack of it, he suggests it's due to a range of reasons from "not wanting to cause difficulties in Northern Ireland to rank timidity" and he concedes "the UK has done next to nothing to recast its regulatory regime." Since the position is unlikely to change before the election and is only expected to get worse from Bootle’s angle afterward, with Labour tacking closer to the EU, if I was him I wouldn’t hold out any hope of there ever being any real divergence.
The truth is that 53% of our trade and rising is with the EU, not because exports to Europe are growing but because trade with the rest of the world is falling as a proportion. If we diverge in regulations EU trade is bound to fall even more, that must be obvious. We’ve saved a few billion in EU contributions but it pales into insignificance compared to the loss in trade, GDP, and tax revenue.
On immigration, he reports that "we have substantially reduced immigration from EU countries but under the new migration system, much increased immigration from the rest of the world has caused the overall number of workers coming here to soar." That is his only comment on the topic. But it's hardly a success, is it?
In short, Brexit has failed in three of the four 'benefit' tests he set himself. In the fourth, the EU budget contributions, we may have saved £10 bn or so but at what cost? And who has seen any financial benefit from it?
He compares the UK to France, Germany, and Italy, EU countries that have also struggled economically in recent years
The problem is that these countries enjoy decent standards of living and public services that actually work. An article in the German newspaper Der Spiegel is telling: The UK Faces a Steep Climb Out of a Deep Hole.
It is the story of a nation in decline, “food shortages, moldy apartments, a lack of medical workers: The United Kingdom is facing a perfect storm of struggle, and millions are sliding into poverty. There is little to suggest that improvement will come anytime soon.”
Brexit has only added to our woes and no amount of defensive rhetoric from Brexiteers like Bootle is going to change that. It was always going to end like this. Under all foreseeable economic circumstances, Brexit was always bound to make things worse.
He ends with this:
"Admittedly, if the UK makes a mess of its independence while the EU gets its act together, then we will have paid a not inconsiderable price for our exit. On the balance of the evidence, I believe that is unlikely. But only time will tell."
Yes, time indeed will tell, as it has already told.
I note another Brexiteer, Daniel Hannan, has another whiny piece also in The Telegraph: If the Government fails to seize the benefits of Brexit, the Blob will drag us back into the bloc
They are self-exculpatory pieces from men who already know deep down they were wrong but can't yet bring themselves to admit it.
Border checks on EU imports are about to start on Thursday with all sorts of dire forecasts about an 'existential' food crisis. It will certainly add to costs and delays and will deter some EU firms from sending goods here but I suspect the problems will not be that noticeable for most people. Border staff will be told to go easy on importers who lack the necessary paperwork and if things do start to look bad they will simply throw open the doors again.
However, like everything else Brexit touches, it will in the long run add cost, complexity and delay, reduce trade and GDP, raise inflation and generally make things worse for most people. Meanwhile, the Brexiteers like Bootle and Hannan who keep supporting it against all the evidence and facts will continue to prosper.
