Thursday 7 September 2017

BREXIT CHAOS BEGINS

The leaking of draft immigration plans (HERE) seems to have signalled the start of a new phase in the Brexit saga. We forget that a lot of people in the civil service are opposed to Brexit so keeping stuff secret is not going to be easy. And if anyone thought the end of the third negotiating round got a bit fractious then they ain't seen nuthin' yet! It looks like things are only going to get worse. For a Brexit watcher like me the next few months will be very entertaining. 

British Industry (HERE) and (HERE) and Brussels (HERE) all reacted badly to the draft proposals for a new post Brexit immigration policy. The Telegraph HERE say the plans are already in 'disarray' because Amber Rudd and Damian Green have distanced themselves from the leaked paper. So, that obviously didn't go down too well.

Now we learn from a new leak (HERE) that the EU intend to release in the next few days position papers on the Irish border and the new customs arrangements. The Guardian claim the EU will say Britain must come up with a scheme to manage the border after Brexit, putting all the responsibility back on Westminster to resolve this most difficult question. And new issues are introduced with the Commission demanding that the UK legislate to recognise name-restricted products with “geographical indicators” such as Champagne and Parmesan before leaving the EU. These demands could apparently play havoc with any future trade deal with the US – which notably does not recognise any controlled named. You can bet the EU papers are short and models of clarity compared to our waffly and overlong fantasies.

All this - and I don't think chaos is in any way the wrong word - comes on the day the withdrawal bill is starting to be debated in parliament.

The government this week has tried to get FTSE 100 company CEOs to sign a letter supporting the government's Brexit strategy but since this looks like a total shamble it appears not very many are willing to put their name to it (HERE). On Newsnight Nick Watt said one CEO had told him he wouldn't sign the letter "in a million years"

Ian Dunt has written a nice blog post (HERE) about how nationalism is turning this country into a basket case and in what might be an explosive revelation, in another blog post by Richard North (HERE), he is suggesting that the UK is seriously thinking about walking out of the negotiations to administer a kind of shock therapy to the EU to make them realise that they need us more than we need them. This is a nationalist illusion. In Mr North's piece he claims that one of the drivers of this idea is no less than Dominic Cummings who has apparently met Mrs May several times recently.

Cummings was campaign director at Vote Leave and was responsible for the £350 million a week for the NHS. That he is still involved beggars belief. He believes opting early to leave and trade under WTO rules would be a win-win situation and would force more concessions out of the EU! Madness.

And in a clear sign that both sides are upping the ante, the Federation of German Industries are said (HERE) to be preparing for a disruptive Brexit with the UK leaving without a trade deal in place. Unless one side backs down the unthinkable may have to be thought.

That this lunacy is being seriously considered (according to Richard North anyway) is proof that we are indeed turning into a suicidal basket case. I fear it is this country that will soon need therapy, not the EU.

To make matters worse, as if that was possible the PM has effectively snubbed the EU parliament and turned down an offer to address it (HERE) in a move which seems calculated to cause more friction and ill feeling at an institution we will need to approve any withdrawal agreement. Apparently she will only talk to European Council leaders in private!

To those of us who always thought Brexit would develop into a car crash, the vehicles are now in sight and seem to have a speed and trajectory that makes an almighty collision unavoidable. What it demonstrates also is that not a single Brexiteer from Farage down through Redwood, Cash, Lilley, Duncan-Smith, etc have given more than a few seconds of thought over the past thirty years or so to the practical details of leaving the EU.