The CBI have recently published a report with their proposals for the new immigration policy (HERE) which I suspect will satisfy nobody. There is simply a restatement of the essential conundrum about immigration. It explicitly notes that high levels of immigration were partly responsible for the referendum result. But it then makes the economic argument that immigration is needed - and not just in high skilled professionals but also in fruit pickers and catering workers at the other end. If you throw in nurses and builders then it's clear we need all kinds of workers.
- Half of London’s construction workforce are not from the UK, according to industry surveys
- 60,000 seasonal workers a year are needed to plant, pick, grade and pack over 9 million tonnes and 300 types of fruit, vegetable and flower crops in Britain
- Over half of economics and econometrics academic staff in higher education institutions are non-British – 36% EU and 29% non-EU
I seem to remember during the campaign, there was talk of EU nationals being treated the same as non EU nationals when coming here as immigrants. But as the CBI point out:
"For those businesses that need access to international labour, many have a strong reliance on EU workers. In part, this is because of geographic proximity. But largely it is because the immigration system for the rest of the world is highly complex, time consuming and expensive, particularly for small businesses. Even as things stand, the current constraints of the non-EU immigration system are harming our economy. So simply applying this, or a similar system to EU citizens would be entirely unworkable".
It makes a series of recommendations to, "Replace free movement with a new open and controlled immigration system for EU citizens"
Reading it one is tempted to say that if the CBI recommendation were adopted immigration would carry on at the same rate or indeed increase. This is the BoJo argument, that people here were concerned about control of the number rather than the number itself. It's another fantasy to think this would be acceptable to UKIP types. We either continue with FoM and keep the economy going or reduce it significantly, as Theresa May said she would, and permanently reduce our growth rate.
Another reason to believe that nobody is going to be happy after Brexit. Business won't be happy and some will move to the continent in order to recruit staff and the racist xenophobes who only want to see white faces and hear English spoken won't be happy either.
Businesses are already struggling to fill vacancies (HERE). A new report from the Chartered Institute of Personnel and Development (CIPD) says 40% of employers had more problems filling vacancies this year – and the shortage means some workers have seen a wage boost - good news for some but bad for inflation.
