ComRes have just published the results of a survey of 10,139 UK residents polled online, across Leave-voting constituencies in England & Wales that returned a Labour MP in 2017, having got their current views on the Brexit process so far - see it HERE. Be warned it's 348 pages long and it takes a bit of wading through. However, to save you the time I have taken out two pages that I think are most relevant to us.
In the press release (HERE) ComRes say, "Significantly too, the poll finds only minority support for a second Referendum or for reversing the result of the first one. This is seen first and foremost about letting democracy run its course".
But when you delve down into two particular questions the conclusion that you might draw is quite different.
On page 91 (HERE) they asked the question: Thinking back to the 2016 referendum, how did you vote? The result was:
Leave 45%
Remain 42%
Didn't vote 11%
Don't know 2%
Now have a look at page 111 (HERE) where they ask another question: If the referendum was held again tomorrow how do you think you would vote? The result was:
Leave 43%
Remain 46%
Would not vote 5%
Don't know 6%
In other words it's more or less a reversal of the "decisive" 2016 result. And remember this is 10,139 people in Labour held, leave voting constituencies only - not the whole country - so quite significant.
It mirrors the YouGov polling and also supports the Focaldata survey (HERE) that suggested 100+ constituencies had changed their minds since the referendum.
Bizzarrely though 39% of those polled think the referendum result should be respected against 24% who don't. It's important to remember that when the survey was done, respondents didn't know a majority of them were for remaining. As this sort of thing seeps out, that there is a change in mood and opinion, perhaps there will be an increase in support for a second vote. I hope so.
By the way, I checked Focaldata (HERE) and on the surface it looks convincing. Their technique is to lever in other publicly available information to supplement the poll data itself and use complex algorithms and AI to make forecasts that they claim are more accurate. I notice the other side hasn't challenged the data so I assume they can't or won't.
Oops, I spoke to soon. A leave voter called in to LBC and in what was clearly a carefully argued challenge - although he didn't use artificial intelligence - described the Focaldata study as "A load of rubbish"! This was reported in The Express (HERE). In fact not only did he not use AI, it's widely believed he didn't use any intelligence at all.
How can we lose?
