YouGov has been asking the same question: If there was a referendum on Britain's membership of the EU how would you vote? - since 2012 (when it was 62% leave, 38% remain!) and there has definitely been a change of opinion. Leave has not had a majority in the twelve polls carried out since March 2017, although it's been level twice. In the other ten Remain was in front.
The last poll, with fieldwork at the end of July, was published yesterday (HERE) and showed 53% - 47% for remain, the same as the one in June. In fact remain has led by at least 2% since January in the five polls carried out.
The opinion of reasonable people at the margin is slowly changing I think.
So, all good stuff.
Another poll (HERE), this time from BMG, shows 48% would support a second referendum while only 24% oppose. Support is up 4% since last month and opposition down 3% so things are definitely moving our way.
Nobody can doubt that we are all much better informed than June 2016 and although Dominic Cummings (HERE) warns against a second vote, he thinks leave will win again. But the lies can only work once - when the voters were uninformed. Now I'm sure they wouldn't and especially not if things begin to look worse. The government is supposed to be releasing advice very soon for consumers and business on how to manage if we leave without a deal. I look forward to that. The more dire the warnings the better.
Logic is on our side. Membership of the EU, with all that means in terms of the economy, people and our influence both in Brussels and elsewhere is the only rational thing.
Membership of the EU is like living in a block of flats, 28 in total and being a part of the tenants association. If you leave the association but keep the flat, what have you gained? Decisions will still be made, some you don't like, but you'll have no chance of influencing the other tenants but will have to live with whatever they decide. It makes no sense not to be in the tenants association, even if you dislike every other member.
