Colm McCarthy writes for the Irish Independent, and on Brexit he is well worth reading. In fact I see many people rely more on Irish newspapers for a balanced and realistic view on Britain's negotiations both inside our own government and with the EU 27. McCarthy has an article (HERE) about the release last week of the 24 technical notices to guide us over the no deal cliff. As usual he gets straight to the central contradiction of both Brexit, the government's Chequers proposal and the technical notices themselves.
"The government has made it clear that when the UK leaves the EU it is going to leave the EU's single market and Customs Union. It is negotiating to secure an ambitious and comprehensive future economic partnership with the EU, which will allow frictionless movement of goods between the UK and the EU."
And then points out:
"Outside both single market and customs union, there will be no frictionless movement of goods on any permanent basis because it is impossible. It cannot be done even temporarily unless the UK concludes a withdrawal agreement, enabling a 21-month standstill on current trade terms, when the clock runs down on March 29. It is extraordinary that official documents from the UK government continue to peddle this fantasy 26 months after the referendum and 17 months after the UK gave definitive notice of resignation from the European Union".
He is of course right. As this blog has noted on any number of occasions frictionless trade outside the single market and the customs union is impossible. Occasionally, Mrs May slips into realistic mode and talks of a deal that allows trade to be as frictionless "as possible". Dragging a tea trolley along a sandy beach is as frictionless as possible for example - but it isn't frictionless, and it's a long way from it.
One of the technical papers advising business how to prepare for no deal is one on "Trading with the EU if there's no Brexit deal". See it HERE. It tells businesses who trade with the EU they should:
"consider how they will submit customs declarations for EU trade in a ‘no deal’ scenario, including whether they should engage the services of a customs broker, freight forwarder or logistics provider to help, or alternatively secure the appropriate software and authorisations"
How easy it all sounds.
But we then read in The Times (HERE) that "customs brokers are bracing themselves for a surge in business after Brexit amid warnings that it will be almost impossible to meet demand if Britain crashes out of the European Union without a deal".
"Trade specialists believe a hard Brexit would generate 'far more business than we could ever handle' after Britain’s first official guidance urged companies to turn to brokers and freight forwarders".
“We’re going to be rather like a guy selling ice cream in a park with 10,000 people,” George Baker, chairman of a Felixstowe-based brokerage of the same name, said. “It’s going to be almost impossible to satisfy the demand.”
But let us assume by a stroke of luck and at huge expense you manage to find a customs broker. And let us assume you sell biscuits into the EU. As Ian Dunt explained some time ago this is what it might mean for you (HERE). As he points out:
"[Biscuits] come under the category of 'composite agrigood'. Tariff rates are calculated on the basis of the percentages of milk fat, milk proteins, starch, or glucose and various forms of sugar in the product. They must be cross-referenced with 504 potential recipes to 27 different kinds of product, leaving 13,608 categories of bakery and confectionery good.
"After all that, [you] will need to make sure [the] carrier has submitted an entry summary declaration at the appropriate time, paid VAT and import duties, including possibly excise duty, and navigated any duty suspensions, customs suspense arrangements or excise duty suspension regimes they might face".
And remember we were leaving the EU to CUT red tape!
