The final tranche of technical notices on how to plan for a no deal outcome was released by the government yesterday afternoon. Notices on Geo Blocking, Gas trading, Accounting and Auditing, Providing Professional Services, Health Marks on Meats and Fish, etc were included. See the complete list HERE. They are all, as far as I can see, rather bland and don't tell us much more than we already knew but the press have picked up on a few key points in the most recent ones.
One of these is the technical paper on what happens to existing EU free trade agreements if there is no deal (HERE). It admits that, "As a member of the EU, the UK currently participates in around 40 free trade agreements with over 70 countries".
One of these is the technical paper on what happens to existing EU free trade agreements if there is no deal (HERE). It admits that, "As a member of the EU, the UK currently participates in around 40 free trade agreements with over 70 countries".
"In 2017, ONS data showed that trade with third countries with EU free trade agreements accounted for around 12% of the UK’s total trade [about £72 billion]. Businesses in the UK, EU and partner countries are eligible for a range of preferential market access opportunities under the terms of these free trade agreements. These can include, but are not limited to:
- preferential duties for goods. This includes reductions in import tariff rates across a wide range of products, quotas for reduced or nil rates of payable duties, and quotas for more relaxed rules of origin requirements.
- enhanced market access for service providers.
- access to public procurement opportunities across a range of sectors.
- improved protections for intellectual property.
The paper says if we exit without a deal we will lose all these FTAs but the government will, "seek to bring into force bilateral UK-third country agreements from exit day, or as soon as possible thereafter" but in the meantime we will have to trade under WTO rules. So, that's 40 FTAs by next March then. Does Liam Fox know?
And trading Electricity (HERE) looks to be a problem for Northern Ireland which relies on Ireland for its power. The technical notice says:
"However, if such an agreement cannot be reached, there is a risk that the Single Electricity Market will be unable to continue, and the Northern Ireland market would become separated from that of Ireland. Separate Ireland and Northern Ireland markets will be less efficient, with potential effects for producers and consumers on both sides of the border."
When it talks of potential effects for producers and consumers, it means producers in the South (no sales) and consumers in the North (no lights). Just another problem to solve. I think it will soon be clear where the power lies, in more ways than one. In July there was talk of hiring thousands of generators and floating them in the Irish Sea (HERE) before it was discovered there wasn't that many generators available anyway.
Another notice is about structuring a business (HERE) that involves cross border trading or ownership:
"UK citizens may face restrictions on their ability to own, manage or direct a company registered in the EU, depending on the sector and EU member state in which the company is operating. This could involve meeting additional requirements on the nationality or residency of individuals allowed to act as senior managers or directors and/or limits on the amount of equity that can be held by non-nationals."
One of the notices issued last month (24th September) was on the REACH regulations (HERE) for chemicals which explains the UK is to build a:
".. new regulatory framework would: enable the registration of new chemicals through a UK IT system that is similar to the existing EU IT system; provide specialist capacity to evaluate the impact of chemicals on health and the environment; ensure sufficient regulatory and enforcement capacity in the HSE, the Environment Agency (EA) and other regulators, enabling them to recommend controls in response to the hazards and risks of substances; and provide for an appropriate policy function in Department for Environment, Food & Rural Affairs (Defra) and the devolved administrations".
This is all duplicating what the EU does for us now and the Royal Society of Chemistry (HERE) is worried that a £50 billion a year industry is threatened because of Brexit. The RSC is calling for:
- The UK must continue to work in an uninterrupted full partnership with the European Chemicals Agency (ECHA) from March 2019 onwards, in order to share data that ensures good decisions on product safety, achieve a ‘common rulebook’, continue with frictionless multiple cross-border transits for chemicals and goods, and avoid unintentional regulatory divergences.
- There must be easy movement of scientists between the UK and the EEA. This includes students and the dependents of those who move. The current non-EEA immigration system is not fit for purpose as a replacement for freedom of movement when the UK leaves the EU.
- The UK needs to secure associated country status in the Horizon Europe programme for science and innovation – and that programme should continue to focus on excellent research
No doubt some of these things can be agreed but it will surely not be able to replicate everything we enjoy at the moment.
I am not sure that anyone truly understands the extent of the hundreds and thousands - perhaps millions - of changes that will have to be made and the sheer amount of wasted effort over the next few years to make us poorer than we otherwise would be.
